Total Recall? Examining the Accuracy of Poll Recall during an Election Campaign
DOI
10.1080/15205436.2021.1936559
Journal
Mass Communication and Society
ISSN
1520-5436
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Despite a considerable interest in the effects of polls published during election campaigns, we know little about how well people internalize and remember their results. This paper studies how accurately citizens recall poll results and factors potentially influencing this accuracy. Theoretically, we draw on research into the perception of polls and poll effects as well as into media effects on political knowledge in general. Empirically, we investigate recall accuracy based on a representative telephone survey conducted two weeks prior to the 2013 German national election. Respondents demonstrated reasonable accuracy in remembering poll results, when they had been exposed to them, and this did not tend to improve drastically with more exposure. Only in the case of recalling the relative poll ranks as opposed to vote shares was more exposure associated with better recall. Politically knowledgeable individuals were consistently better at recalling the polls, but greater interest in the election did not improve recall beyond this.
Authors
Zerback, T; Reinemann, C; Barnfield, MCollections
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