Geographic profiling in Nazi Berlin: fact and fiction

Abstract

Geographic profiling uses the locations of connected crime sites to make inferences about the probable location of the offender’s ‘anchor point’ (usually a home, but sometimes a workplace). We show how the basic ideas of the method were used in a Gestapo investigation that formed the basis of a classic German novel about domestic resistance to the Nazis during the Second World War. We use modern techniques to re-analyse this case, and show that these successfully locate the Berlin home address of Otto and Elise Hampel, who had distributed hundreds of anti-Nazi postcards, after analysing just 34 of the 214 incidents that took place before their arrest. Our study provides the first empirical evidence to support the suggestion that analysis of minor terrorism-related acts such as graffiti and theft could be used to help locate terrorist bases before more serious incidents occur.