Simple low cost causal discovery using mutual information and domain knowledge

Abstract

This thesis examines causal discovery within datasets, in particular observational datasets where normal experimental manipulation is not possible. A number of machine learning techniques are examined in relation to their use of knowledge and the insights they can provide regarding the situation under study. Their use of prior knowledge and the causal knowledge produced by the learners are examined. Current causal learning algorithms are discussed in terms of their strengths and limitations. The main contribution of the thesis is a new causal learner LUMIN that operates with a polynomial time complexity in both the number of variables and records examined. It makes no prior assumptions about the form of the relationships and is capable of making extensive use of available domain information. This learner is compared to a number of current learning algorithms and it is shown to be competitive with them.