| dc.description.abstract | The fundamental purpose of this study is to build an econometric
model of the Venezuelan Economy to concentrate primarely on the following:
first, to analyse the effects of monetary, fiscal and external
disturbances on expenditures, prices and on the Balance of Payments during
the period 1955-1984, a period of fixed exchange rate; second, to
approximate an optomal policy 'mix' necessary to achieve certain
macroeconomic objectives, i. e, steady economic growth, price stability and
balance of payments equilibrium; thirdly, to provide a simple well
integrated macroeconometric model of the Venezuelan Economy.
The resulted model is a generalised income determination model where a
short to medium term analysis of balance of payments can be exercised. The
model belongs to the vintage of general keynesian type where the monetray
and financial sector enters in a stock-flow fashion. Explicit recognition
of the government budget constraint guarantees the integration of both
sectors of the Venezuelan Economy as well as of the policy shocks.
The empirical section of this dissertation is carried out using least
squares method to estimate the structural parameters under the carefully
scrutiny of the Econometric Modelling strategy developed by Professor
David Hendry and associates and which has becoming standard in the
econometric modelling practice in the United Kingdom.
From the analysis of the dynamic multipliers emerges some already
standard results. It has been demonstrated that the impact of the budget
deficit on the economy-diverges depending on which method is used to
finance the deficit. Money financing shows a strong impulse in economic
growth with a large disequilibrium in the balance of payments. Multipliers
are negative. Exchange rate multipliers are positive with respect to the
balace of payments following its direct effect on the current account and
its induced effect on economic growth. Price are sticky according to the
manner they are incorporated, as well as for its Non-Granger causality
with money. No empirical basis was found to accept the money-price
causality.
Pure monetary policy did show ambiguous results, however, financial
liberalization produce strong economic growth and corresponding balance of
payments deficit. Using these results we could inferr a plausible optimal combination
of policies targeted towards equilibria in the external accounts with
steady economic growth. | en_US |
