Improving Legal Reasoning using Bayesian Probability Methods

Abstract

A thesis which explores the possibility of introducing Bayesian probability methods into the criminal justice system, and in doing so, exposing and eradicating some common fallacies. This exposure aims to reduce miscarriages of justice by illustrating that some evidence routinely relied upon by the prosecution, may not have as high a probative value towards its ultimate hypothesis of ‘guilt’ as has been traditionally thought and accepted.