Traffic pattern prediction in cellular networks.

Abstract

Increasing numbers of users together with a more use of high bit-rate services complicate radio resource management in 3G systems. In order to improve the system capacity and guarantee the QoS, a large amount of research had been carried out on radio resource management. One viable approach reported is to use semi-smart antennas to dynamically change the radiation pattern of target cells to reduce congestion. One key factor of the semi-smart antenna techniques is the algorithm to adjust the beam pattern to cooperatively control the size and shape of each radio cell. Methods described in the literature determine the optimum radiation patterns according to the current observed congestion. By using machine learning methods, it is possible to detect the upcoming change of the traffic patterns at an early stage and then carry out beamforming optimization to alleviate the reduction in network performance. Inspired from the research carried out in the vehicle mobility prediction field, this work learns the movement patterns of mobile users with three different learning models by analysing the movement patterns captured locally. Three different mobility models are introduced to mimic the real-life movement of mobile users and provide analysable data for learning. The simulation results shows that the error rates of predictions on the geographic distribution of mobile users are low and it is feasible to use the proposed learning models to predict future traffic patterns. Being able to predict these patterns mean that the optimized beam patterns could be calculated according to the predicted traffic patterns and loaded to the relevant base stations in advance.